about world economic

Andrian Cooper in a presentation on Global Economic Outlook: how Secure is The Global Recovery, discussed that emerging markets such as China, Brazil, India leading the recovery but gathering strength in G3. Recovery maybe surprisingly strong in short term but cautious about how secure it is.... Global imbalances in CA remain a threat.. contrasting shapes to recovery.. As conclusions to presentation he put forward that:

• policy stimulus, turn in inventory cycle and rebound in world trade will drive strong recovery in near term
• growth in developed economies is expected to remain below trend as government join banks and households in financial retrenchment
• monitory policy will tighten only slowly especially in Europe
• Asian economies will see more classic V recovery
• Risk more balance but outlook still uncertainty

Kevin Tan writes in INSEAD KNOWLEDGE about Debunking myths about China's imminent collapse and India's Economic Outlook :

Economist ...expects the growth of multiple centres of powers in the future, which would include emerging economies such as India, Brazil, Indonesia and Turkeys. Indian economy expected to grow by 8.5% this year bolster by relatively stronger domestic demand. India saving rate is between 35 to 37% of GDP and investment rate is 36 to 37%.

  

Jing Ulrich Chairman of China Equities and Commodities feel a needs to make correction over people woriedness about China's fiscal position especially debt level which considered too high and rampant over capacity in various china economic sectors. China roll out USD586 billion economic stimulus package in late 2008 help fuel the speculatory in property market in which 60% of China's GDP. Last year China's bank issued loan about USD1.4 trillion. While agreed with people concern Ulrich point out some area of potential. There are 3 key economic shift in china

• moving toward more neutral monitory policy from ultra expansionary in 2009. Monitory tightening is aimed to control inflation, prevent deterioration of bank quality asset and avoiding over-capacity
• reduced supportive policy on real estate sector
• shifting toward more private sector consumption from state-driven investment

Just thinking whats really cause the economic recovery. Is it due to stimulus package or ... whats about domestic saving and consumption.. actually wonder if the world economic recovery is real ............ jeragang